Manifest 2020 US Election Pool

This is the Manifest 2020 us POTUS election pool page. The last time we did this (Bayfield [Bluewater] Municipals 2018) there were six members of the pool. This time we don’t need quite as much information about the election.

It would be useful to have some way for those making wagers to predict a real world Electoral College vote. The Financial Times does have a free page that lets you apportion EC votes from the toss-up states so you can get a real world result without resort to pencil, paper and calculator. The Times is also putting the biggest polling “lewser” from 2016, Nate Cohn up on a daily basis with a polling rundown.

Those posting a bet should choose the winner (Trump or Biden), the number of Electoral College votes won and a percentage of the popular vote.

	Winner (Trump or Biden)	Electoral College Vote	Percentage of popular vote won
Tom	Biden	290	54
Bryan	Biden	322	53
Rob	Biden	326	52
Michael	Biden	312	57
Nick	Trump	272	44
Bob	Biden	310	57
Russell	Biden	357	53

Comments:

Russell added this comment on October 25, 2020:

What could go wrong? Nothing much besides a second American Civil War according to the Rulz Committee. I personally had another fear that set in when I was channel clicking past the Zoomer Channel a few weeks ago. Exactly how did that channel get to be part of the standard channel lineup? Anyway, I heard an irritating voice from the past. It turned out to be that of Lord Bleck of Crossharbour, and more recently, the US Penitentiary Service. I stopped to listen as he went on about how Trump’s financial problems were nothing but some junk bonds era piffle and that what he personally found unforgiveable in Biden was the way he treated Robert Bork during his failed nomination process. And then the nightmare descended on me. Trump loses and he decides to run for the border ahead of the US Marshalls armed with very specific arrest warrants. Trump feints south and the entire US justice system turns its attention to Florida or Mexico. But then Trump pivots North to Niagara Falls and scoots across to border to stay with Conrad and Lady Black. Toronto will have T-Rump forever if the pace of the Meng Wanzhou extradition is typical of how quickly these things proceed.

Russell added this comment on October 30, 2020:

One of the abiding lessons from my Fool’s Errand 2 years is that nothing much changes in any election with less than a week to go. It really doesn’t matter if Rudy Giuliani holds a press conference tomorrow introducing the 7-year-old love child of Hunter Biden and Stormy Daniels carrying a bulging file folder with 70 million Ukrainian rubles of Burisma stock. It’s over. So here’s my tabulated wager. There are two remarkable things about it. I gave T-Rump Texas, although it’s really pretty hard to tell what might be happening there from the polling. That’s mainly because T-Rump is polling so much worse than he performed in 2016 and much, much worse than Romney did in 2012. That is generally true in most of the formerly solid Republican Confederate south and in the T-Rump Blue Wall strongholds of the mid-west. That is the reason I am nudging Biden so much closer to the old standard landslide number (ie 55 %). I don’t think it’s going to be pretty.

Tom added this comment on November 2, 2020:

Reminds me of Grey Cup lottery conceptual difficulties. The point of sending it to Catherine was so that those actively betting would NOT know what the others had bet. Then once they were all in she would send them out. She instead wrote them on a piece of paper (following Dr. Cranston's method) and left me to do the secretarial work. In any case they are all in ahead of time and everyone should have the message confirming their estimate. A few anomalies I noted, the biggest being that Nick apparently expects a huge vote for the Greens, Libertarians, CP and Peace & Freedom crippling Biden who loses even though Trump only gets 44%. Of the Biden backers I have the second highest projected vote percentage and the lowest EC results. If Trump wins, Nick is the big $70 winner!  If not I think we will not have a tie.

Rob wrote on Tue, Nov 3, 2020 at 6:00 PM:

I think Nick is going to do a Michael on us. Nick is already selling Trump merch.

Congratulations Nick.

Tom wrote on Wednesday Nov 4, 2020:

There are still a lot of votes to count. I still like my chances. Biden is doing a fair imitation of Hillary, an unloved candidate foisted on the base by the machine. All that is missing is blaming Putin for the lack of enthusiasm.

Bryan wrote on Wednesday Nov 4, 2020:

Tom's prediction looks good, although Bob's might prevail if the urban and pre-election votes in Pennsylvania and Michigan get tallied and break heavily Democratic. No boogaloo tonight, apparently, although the White House is now fenced, which I think harkens back to Herbert Hoover's response to the unemployed descent on Washington in the Bonus Army. Biden's befuddlement and Trump's outcampaigning him -- however stupid holding the superspreader rallies and attending them was, they signalled an energy lacking in the Dems, where they pretty much relied on Obama -- took a toll over the course of the last days. For the left, I think there is no silver lining for this sorry cloud. If Biden hangs on to win, as I expect he will, his lacklustre showing and Trump's capacity to get votes even given Covid 19, the economic collapse, and the chaos and repugnance of the current Administration, will only impart Lesson One in parliamentary cretinism to Biden and the Dems: their job, when governing, will be to align with the Right and smash the so-called Left in their midst. I wouldn't count on any Cabinet posts for the Squad, Sanders, et al. Even Warren may appear too threatening to Biden. Best to all, Bryan

Nick wrote on Wednesday Nov 4, 2020:

Woke up late this a.m. after refusing to watch any of the "election" nonsense. All I want to know is... WHO'S HOLDING MY MONEY? (perhaps I'm being a tad premature). If Trump can get this many votes under these conditions and after four years of what can only be described as presidential insanity, then it's over for our neighbours to the south. Yes, the democrats are liars, beholden to corporate interests and have done nothing to protect working people. The list goes on and on (not to mention foreign policy). Plenty of reasons to reject the Democrats. But to actually go out and vote for this clown; that the election is even close...does not bode well. If Biden does slip through, I agree with Bryan...hard right. Ugh! I may have to continue my personal boycott of the "good ole" U.S.A. N. PS Rob, loved the album. Where can I get a copy?

Russell wrote on Wednesday Nov 4, 2020:

Russell posted a long and meandering, anecdote-laden post on his page in the Facebunker with lots of video clips. Some of them even made Brenda smile. It is publicly available here. In olden times, "anecdotes" used to be called "primary sources."

What is to be done (ie counted), NYT Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Where Presidential Votes Remain to Be Counted Vote counting in several presidential battleground states could take days. This page shows the estimated uncounted vote according to turnout estimates by Edison Research, our results provider for presidential results, and modeled estimates for the partisan makeup of remaining votes by The Upshot. These estimates do not show the exact number of outstanding votes, but are provided as a way to track where votes remain.

STATE	Electoral Votes	EST. VOTES REPORTED	CURRENT MARGIN		*EST. TOTAL VOTES REMAINING
Arizona	11	86%	Biden +3 pts.	+93,509 votes	450,000
Georgia	16	92%	Trump +2 pts.	+103,705 votes	410,000
Michigan	16	92%	Biden +0.6 pts.	+32,565 votes	450,000
North Carolina	15	95%	Trump +1.4 pts.	+76,737 votes	290,000
Pennsylvania	20	78%	Trump +10 pts.	+534,180 votes	1,600,000
Wisconsin	10	97%	Biden +0.6 pts.	+20,697 votes	100,000

*This is an estimate. It may not account for all ballots.

Rob wrote on Friday, Nov 6, 2020 at 10:12 AM:

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Turn and face the strange

It's possible that Bob could pull this off .... time will tell.

Russell wrote on on Friday, Nov 6, 2020 at 10:45 AM:

Right now with Georgia and Pennsylvania moving into the Biden column for 306 electoral college votes, it looks like Bob would be the winner. Michael would be a close second. And if North Carolina goes Biden. . . .

A more serious question right now is: What is Nick going to do with those 25,000 CDs of the T-Rump Christmas album that he ordered on E-Day. Maybe Steve Bannon would be interested in them. You could build a pretty scary curtain wall with them on the Mexican border.